The explosions over Tehran, Haifa and Tel Aviv weren’t just another chapter in the long history of Middle Eastern conflict. They were a signal, a warning to those paying attention, that something deeper is moving. Behind the barrage of missiles and the retaliatory fire, a world-changing power shift is in full progress.
On the world’s stage in plain view, it starts between Iran and Israel, both exchanging fire and claiming self-defence for justification. But in places far removed from the smoking rubble of these opposing nations, powerful nuclear armed countries are watching very closely and anticipating making a play if this conflict dramatically escalates.
The Looming Shadow
This isn’t a story of Israel versus Iran. Not anymore. It is the story of nations choosing sides. Of nuclear powers deciding who they should align with to secure their own objectives and survival. This is a world dividing power play that has the potential to destroy nations and give rise to new ones.
Regional and world powers, China, Russia, and Pakistan, are not fighting (or at least not yet). They are almost certainly watching, assessing and calculating. But the war between Iran and Israel is in the periphery, the real focus is firmly on the USA. Post Second World War and arguably even more so since the collapse of the USSR, the USA has become the dominant military force in the world, by far. And of course and most importantly, the USA are closely allied with Israel.
As both sides take turns in striking targets and systematically tearing each other to pieces, the world holds its breath in anticipation, to see how far this will go before the USA intervenes. Because, from a USA point of view, Israel must not, and cannot be seen to lose to Iran. So from an Israeli prospective, victory is (almost) guaranteed. But whose victory will it really be?
Who really wins?
Israeli command have long wanted to remove all regional threats as it would seem, at any cost. With former regional powers Syria and Iraq mostly in ruins, fractured, chaotic and recovering from military conquests, Iran is now in the crosshairs. There aren't many sympathisers for the Iranian theocratic rulers, including a large portion of the Persian people whom they govern over. So there will likely not be an appetite for the people of Iran to keep their current rulers, but that is not to say they welcome intervention of any kind from outside powers. Any intervention from The USA will likely lead to a strategic victory for Israel and by proxy, any enemies in the eyes of the Iranian government.
But who really wins? Anyone who has been paying attention to the Middle East will know, when a government is toppled through military intervention, there is a power vacuum that leads to total and hellish chaos. All those "surgical strikes" to avoid civilian casualties, becomes null and void. Because the war tribes who battle for control in the aftermath, completely decimate innocent people who are guilty of nothing more than not fitting in with their ideology.
The root cause
The highly inflammatory creation of the state of Israel for a "Jewish home" has long been opposed by nations who predominantly follow the Islamic faith and doctrine. Israel are widely seen by many nations in the Middle East as invaders and aggressors with an illegitimate claim to sovereignty. This position has always been vehemently denied by Israel, who intern have claimed absolute right to their state and sovereignty.
The initial and very real rejection of a Jewish state has caused huge regional instability and has now led to decades of seemingly endless wars, conflicts and dangerous arms races, as nations surrounding Israel have each taken turns in their mutual destruction. But that is no longer the position of many countries in the Middle East who now accept the state of Israel and only seek peace and stability. Iran on many occasions have made their position clear that they see Israel as aggressors and the root cause for instability in the region. In stark contrast, Israel have and their allies have claimed Iran has been raging a series of proxy wars against them, causing Israel to retaliate.
The second casualty of war
It is said the first casualty of war is the truth, it is arguably innocent people who are the second. We should always be sewing for greater relations with our neighbour's and seek to bring people together, for a stronger bond between nations. But it is not always that simplistic and there are unfortunately too many bad actors who are deeply invested in death, destruction and power.
Nothing good ever comes from war, at least not in the short term, but war happens neither the less. A swift end is now the only hope for the innocent people caught in the crossfire on both sides of this dangerous and incendiary conflict. A clear and effective plan must be put in place to ensure the least amount of suffering and destruction. On this current trajectory, this conflict will ignite like a tinderbox, and the world powers watching will be forced to play their hand and choose a side, it doesn't take a genius to recognise what that will mean. The very real prospect of total worldwide warfare with nuclear armed countries.